The issue of youth migration is surrounded by widespread social, scientific, and political interest, and we often find the presence of politicised positions in both public and everyday discourses. We often hear that young Hungarians are emigrating abroad, and behind any positive emigration trends is that everyone who wanted to emigrate has already done so.
The issue of migration has major social, demographic, economic, and cultural consequences, and as a result, the concept of migration, which appears in various discourses – especially those involving “our young people” – has an emotionally heated meaning, which often carries a negative tone. But let's look at the facts.
Learning and working abroad is an attractive perspective mainly for young people. According to 2020 data released by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office, the majority of emigrating Hungarians were young: 42 percent of them were below the age of 30, and 68 percent were younger than 40 years. Most returnees are also young; 61% of returning migrants were younger than 40 years, and 28 percent were below 30 years of age.
The decision-making phase can be considered as the first step in the migration process, preceded by a period of planning. The migration potential, i.e. the intention to emigrate, relates to a future event and can therefore be seen rather as an attitude. However, while migration potential is clearly unable to predict actual emigration, there is a strong correlation between migration plans (willingness) and actual migration, and it may also be suitable for a careful estimation of trends.
The results of the youth research carried out on a large, nationwide representative sample in Hungary and in every four years since the 2000s can be used to infer young people's willingness to migrate, as well as their attitudes and motivations behind migration. As regards short-term migration potential, 8 percent of respondents (7 percent in 2012, 8 percent in 2016) plan to participate in short-term foreign study programs, while less than a fifth (18 percent) of 15-29 year-olds plan to work abroad in the short-term, i.e. a few weeks or months, including cross-border commuting. Short-term international migration for the purpose of employment is somewhat more popular among the 15-19-year-old age group and those living in the cities.
The proportion of Hungarian young people who plan to work abroad in the long-term has decreased from 27 percent in 2016 to 21 percent in 2020. In the research, the question was asked in a different way as well, and the results also indicate a decrease in the willingness to migrate among Hungarian young people compared to the previous survey four years earlier: while in 2016, 15 percent of respondents planned to live abroad (permanently settling down in a foreign country), their proportion decreased to 11 percent in 2020. One of the fundamental challenges of estimating migration potential is that it is difficult to estimate the realisation of migration intentions. According to data from the previous youth research in 2020, two-third of young people planning to emigrate (66 percent) are considering migration. In addition, 21% of those having an emigration plan have a serious intention to move abroad and only 10 % (?) claim that they have made a migration-related decisions or have already taken steps toward migration.
It is also interesting to examine which push, pull, and retaining factors influence migration intentions. The reasons behind migration are complex, but the data shows that the emigration of the Hungarian young people is fundamentally economic. 44 percent of those having an emigration plan would leave Hungary primarily for financial and subsistence reasons. A significant decrease can be observed compared to the previous Hungarian youth research cycles; in 2012, 66 percent of respondents and in 2016, 69 percent of respondents would leave the country to make a better living. The second most common reason was the lack of opportunities in Hungary (26 percent), and 24 percent would move abroad for family reasons. Attachment to the family (31 percent), the feeling of satisfaction with the situation at home (thriving at home: 26 percent, unwillingness to give up life and career opportunities at home: 20 percent), and fear (of an unfamiliar, foreign environment: 18 percent, of failure: 15 percent) proved to be the strongest retaining factors at the forming of migration intentions.
The analysis of emigration intentions, as mentioned above, rather helps to assess the importance of emigration in young people's future plans. According to the empirical data in line with the national migration trend, the migration intentions of Hungarian youth are also weakening. Furthermore, the push and pull factors remain rather material, and although the migration trends can be influenced by external circumstances such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit, more respondents feel that they can thrive at home than four years earlier.
